In India the Sesame seed crop estimation for 2018 is 178,000 tonnes, cultivated from an area of sowing of 1,324, 256 Hectors with a yield/hector of 134kg. This is a reduction in yield of 44.8% compared to the 2017 crop.
The reduction in yield is due to the reduction in harvesting area following to crop damage caused by rain and insects. Farmers were reluctant to re-harvesting in crop damaged areas.
India’s average exports during 2018 were between 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes. Assuming India’s 2019 summer crop will be around 35,000 metric tonnes, India will still need to import 150,000 metric tonnes to ensure it can fulfil its export potential. Therefore, Indian Hulled Sesame Seed prices will depend on import price, which will keep buyers guessing. Any sudden demand can create panic amongst buyers and suppliers.
East and West African Countries produced the following metric tonnes of whitish: Sudan 650,000 + 85,000 reddish, Ethiopia 325,000, Nigeria 220,000, Tanzania 75,000, Burkina Faso/Allied 150,000, Mozambique 60,000, Uganda 20,000 – Totalling 1,500,000 + 85,000 reddish.
Other countries and regions: Pakistan 70,000, Somalia, Myanmar and Bangladesh 100,000 and Central America 70,000 – Totalling 240,000
In Summary: The supply and demand situation is that the supply of Sesame seed from India will be under pressure throughout 2019 with prices remaining unpredictable for long term procurement. India, Sudan and Ethiopia have carryover stocks of approximately 85,000 metric tonnes. China has 125,000 metric tonnes of stock at the port besides their own production.
The sum of these total estimates of supply exceeding 2 million metric tonnes should be more than adequate to satisfy the current global consumption which is estimated to be around 1,900,000 metric tonnes.
In the 2018 Autumn Crop survey focuses on farms in the Xinjiang and Heilongjiang Provinces who Unicorn Ingredients work.
Grow Without Shell (GWS) Pumpkin Seeds: In 2018 the GWS yielding size has decreased to approximately 80,000 mu compared with 200,000 mu in the 2017 crop year – a decrease of approximately 60% (1 mu=0.066 ha). This will produce approximately 8,000 metric tonnes of GWS Pumpkin Seeds, plus with the other GWS crop contribution the total crop size of GWS in 2018 will be around 10,000 metric tonnes. Heilongjiang and Inner-Mongolia failed to supply decent commercial GWS seeds to export markets in the 2018 crop year. However, it is estimated there would be at least 6,000 – 8,000 metric tonnes of 2016 and 2017 crop carry over in the market to support the 2018 crop and the market demands until the new crop arrives in September 2019.
Shine Skin Pumpkin Seeds : The 2018 crop size will be more or less similar to the 2017 crop size with a yield of approximately 350,000 mu. This in theory will produce around 39,000 metric tonnes of seeds (in shell) or about 30,000 metric tonnes of kernels. In addition, we estimate there are still more than 6,000 metric tonnes of 2017 crop carry over held on export oriented producers sites. It is still uncertain if such stock levels can support the export business until the new crop arrives in 2019.
The physical quality and texture of both GWS and Shine Skin Pumpkin Seeds is generally better than the 2017 crop, especially those originating from Xinjiang Province. In 2018 Xinjiang Province, due to man-powered limitation, has seen pesticides contaminated lands due to previous years when cotton was planted and chemical fertilizer, including herbicides, had been used on the land. Whilst in Heilongjiang Province farmers have been more aware of the sustainability of their land and grow different agricultural crops, use less pesticides and herbicides and applying organic manure to the soil.
Both GWS and Shine Skin markets have seen their prices hit historical low points in the past month – especially Shine Skin due to reduced demand of Shine Skin from the home snacks market over the past two consecutive years. We predict both markets are approaching their costs bottom lines but don’t expect them to rebound immediately, especially GWS.