Pumpkinseed kernels

Stable prices due to lacklustre demand globally, including domestically where the Chinese economy is performing poorly compared to previous years and consumers are a little squeezed. Buyers are turning to new crop and what plantings will be like, but one assumes the depressed prices and surely reduced demand will lead to lower quantities available and an upswing in markets for late 2025/2026.

Linseed

An interesting potential change in dynamics here. Firstly, prices have been gradually firming, particularly for golden as demand increases. Quality is deteriorating as we move through the 2024 harvest material.

Surely demand will strengthen further for Kazakhstan material from USA buyers with Canadian material subject to 25% tariff.  But where will all the Canadian material go? Well 15 years ago there was a GMO issue, this is supposed to be under control, but will EU buyers readily accept this? If Kazakhstan prices increase, it opens a new possibility for Canadian material, and perhaps even India again which is trading at a premium, which is gradually closing the gap.

Sesame seed

The market is still quiet, partly due to the knock on of Chinese New Year although imports in 2024 were up 27%. If this continues it will strengthen prices. Korea has recently launched a tender for 10,000mt too. The lower prices are also impacting plantings for their summer crop by 30%. Cheap imports from Brazil and elsewhere are also depressing the market in India, but this material is not suitable for EU/USA markets.

Africa sees available material declining and sellers are reluctant to part with stocks at these lower levels. The Central American crops continue to decline too with harvested volumes the lowest on record.

It feels like the next price movement will be upwards now.

Hulled Millet

The EU quota is almost gone on Ukrainian material, and this will support the price rises which have already started. Ukraine has been too cheap for too long this season as farmers are keen to export material to safe regions and not risk losing the crops should Russia advance further or faster.

Sunflower

Prices have failed to increase further despite all indicators showing they should be significantly higher. The supply base has issues all cash related as previously reported. We hear several facilities are closed down, price renegotiations in the EU and USA have and are taking place. Quality is also challenged due to the harvest seed quality.

What happens in the next two months is anyone’s guess, new crop is expected lower, but will it be? Hard to be certain when you look at global oilseed supply, but we have a long way to go and lots of uncertainty. We would expect the summer to be a difficult period, as buyers anticipating a significant drop run their inventories down and suddenly increase demand before they are available. New crop does not arrive until November/early December in UK and later in USA so we would strongly suggest 2025 cover is taken now.

Poppy

Prices increase as the Czech Republic fails to perform as expected.  New crop are still some way off, and alkaloid levels being demanded are hard to achieve from many origins. Southern Hemisphere supplies are very slow in coming forward which is also challenging these markets supply chain.

Quinoa

Increased sowing has been reported across Ayacucho & Andahuaylas regions of Peru due to strong demand for exports. Now it comes down to weather, so we need the rain to stop! The crop is late due to weather delaying planting so new crop will not appear until May shipment. In the meantime, prices edge upwards.

New developing origins report increased planting areas, so these might feature more in months to come depending on quality to meet EU demands.

Chia

2024 export figures are above expectations and 2025 is predicted to be 20% up on last year to 200,000 hectares. Planting will commence in the next few weeks as the weather settles down. The prolonged drought in the region has not fully broken delaying shipments further from Paraguay.

As last year we would expect alternate origin material to feature to fill the gap in supply between Paraguayan crops. Plantings are increasing here and the quality is good.