Pumpkinseed kernels

As already mentioned, the strong US$ has tempered already weak demand for pumpkin kernels. Slow domestic demand as China faces its own issues is forcing farmers to realign their expectations too.

Increased awareness of pesticide levels, particularly in GWES crops is challenging parcel selection prior to processing, and with different requirements in different countries lot selection per destination is becoming a critical issue and reflecting in multiple price levels.

Pumkin kernel supply is becoming increasingly difficult, and in our view is not a price driven commodity now, but a supply chain security issue.

Furthermore, with the slowdown in demand less financially secure processors are struggling with the carrying cost of inventory and we foresee some casualties here.

Linseed

Ukrainian supplies of EU quality material are declining, leaving Kazakhstan as the primary source going into 2025. The vulnerability here is transit through Russia and issues on supply chain. This is steadily firming prices, which will be given a further boost by the increasing duty rate on Russian material on 1^st January 2025.

We must also remember the impact of the Russian crop globally, an ever-weakening rouble makes Russian material very attractively priced for markets who are happy to continue working with this region and this will keep a pressure on global markets.

For sure we are seeing a stable situation out of Canada, but the threat of tariffs from the USA will impact this dynamic.

Golden linseed is becoming extremely short already in EU markets. Seems the price will steadily increase through 2025.

Sesame seed

With new crops arriving in several countries now the market is developing again. Tenders from Korea, plus China sourcing from Brazil are all changing the dynamic of the market. Also, the primary crop in India is shifting from October to April, as we have been mentioning for some years now.

Prices are gradually firming however with support form domestic markets in India, and the return of Chinese demand. African growing regions are troubled with conflict and logistical issues.

We see limited downside potential in sesame, so would generally recommend cover taken forward at this time.

Hulled Millet

Still attractively priced compared to previous seasons as Ukrainian farmers are keen to clear stocks as fast as possible. This is despite the crop being significantly smaller than previous harvests. This feels like a situation which will correct suddenly as availability tightens. We shall see.

Logistics costs are increasing now we are into winter and the various holiday period ahead over December and January.  So, all in all we might be at the market bottom now.

Sunflower

Prices have stalled for the time being, well off the highs seen in previous seasons where the supply situation has been as critical.  Farmers are reluctant sellers and prices have not climbed sufficiently to reduce demand.

Combined with an escalation in oil production in Russia and reduced tariffs in Turkey and a global vegetable oil shortage it feels like this is merely a pause in sunflower pricing. Certainly, demand will continue to outstrip supply in the first half of 2025. This is particularly a problem for kernel producers due to the poor quality of the crop. Crushers can still utilize the small seed, hullers cannot.

It is a tricky supply situation, with the major pressure coming in Q3/2025 (July-September).

Poppy

Pretty steady situation for now. Some suppliers are sold out already for 2024/25 harvest, with others slow in producing material. The Czech situation appears to be more disappointing than the original optimism shown for the crop. So, prices are likely to remain at current levels for the time being.

Quinoa

Eyes are turning to the 2025 harvest in Peru/Boliva and so far, plantings look good, and the weather has been kind. But we have some way to go, in the meantime, we see stocks dwindling and demand for pesticide free material increasing, so things will definitely get worse before they might get better!

Chia

With the Paraguayan crop smaller than forecast and demand increasing, farmers are sensing an opportunity and holding back stocks watching the price increase. It is likely the total crop will be between 55-60,000mt and the USA has already secured in excess of 20,000mt. Other producing countries, such as Bolivia, have become net importers.

Seems the price can only go one way for now.