Pumpkinseed kernels

It is well established that the shine skin crop was of good quality and quantity and prices have drifted lower reflecting this. We feel this has now stabilised, and the appearance of local stockists in the market buying volume for speculative purposes has actually started to push prices higher. We doubt they will return to the bottom seen a few weeks ago.

GWS pumpkin is a different story. The harvest was impacted by unseasonal wet weather causing the fruits to rot and become infested. Pesticides were applied to save the harvest, and now we are hearing that at best only 20% of the harvest will meet EU/USA standards. The rest will be exported to Middle East and Indian markets which are showing steady demand growth.

Organic pumpkin seed is almost impossible to secure to the correct standards now, and prices are climbing.

Linseed

The crop in Kazakhstan appears better than 2023, and a similar picture is appearing from Canada. But political issues between Kazakhstan, Russia and EU is impacting transport arrangements, increasing costs and delaying consignments. Issues with paperwork, clearance and routing have led to shortages for crushers awaiting cargo delivery. In addition, the step fold increase within the EU on Russian duty rates adds a firming tendency to forward linseed prices.

Russian material is still finding its way into EU clients who are happy to cover from this region, but we believe the pattern is changing somewhat. For the UK a heavy duty rate prevents viable importation.

Golden linseed is already tight and prices keep climbing, sourced mainly from Ukraine and Poland. It seems material will be very tight by the Spring.

Sesame seed

The Indian current harvest estimates have been written down by 9% during the recent conference due to the wet weather, meaning only 150,000mt is expected to be harvested. Imports from Brazil have been delayed due to defaults and logistics issues. This seed would not suit USA/UK/EU markets but helps support other demand.

The low prices have permitted some crushing facilities to buy white sesame for their purposes.

We have seen EU imports of Indian sesame seed start to recover after the ETO issues of 2019, particularly for hulled seed as other origins have not been able to maintain consistent supply and quality. But really the market responds to China requirements which are delayed currently due to huge stocks in Chinese port warehouses. In recent years China has looked to Pakistan for the majority of their requirement and here the production has increased significantly. In fact, in 2024 the crop is expected to be 350,000mt, but a lot is wet damaged and of lower quality.

African supplies are troubled for a variety of reasons reported in earlier months.

So, the market is relatively stable and will probably only be moved by Chinese market changes, and this is probably only upwards.

Hulled Millet

Ukraine supplies to the EU now incur duty which makes the UK and other origins more attractive for this producer and vice versa. Within the EU supplies must come from Poland etc. where the crop has been good.

Prices are starting to increase as logistics costs increase and demand picks up, so we have seen the lows for the season.

Sunflower

Bad and getting worse! As we have been reporting, the yields are down across Europe by +/-25%. For hullers the situation is worse since the seed size is small and as much as 35% of the crop is unusable for kernel production. It can still go for crushing.

Prices are steadily increasing, farmers will not release stocks, and forecasts keep getting worse.

Small processors are shutting up production facilities and there are numerous renegotiations and defaults occurring.

Prices are up 65% already and we see nothing to stop the trend as the market overheats due to all the above reasons. There is no apparent relief to the situation until the 2025 harvest in August/September.

A very precarious and dangerous situation will continue until then.

Poppy

Some concerns over the apparent good Czech Republic crop are emerging. Whereas it was forecast to be circa 30,000mt. The material is impacted with high yeast and mould counts due to the rain the region experienced over the summer. This is reducing the quantity available for sale. So the gradual decline in pricing has stopped and edged upwards. Most other regions have smaller harvests than initially expected so prices will rise again.

Quinoa

Quinoa continues upwards, particularly for EU qualified material which is 15/20% higher. As with other crops only about 20% of available goods are expected to meet EU standards so the price differential between grades is bound to widen as Asian and USA markets are more tolerant. Organic material is very difficult to obtain and prices are reflecting this.

Chia

It is clear that bad yields and smaller crops have left this as a demand driven market now. Several processors have defaulted on contracts, and pesticides have been detected by EU importers. On top of this the low water in rivers, in some cases a drop of 9m has made exports from Paraguay, slow, expensive and complex. No good news here for the foreseeable future.