Pumpkinseed kernels

Harvest is well under way and as earlier reported the crop is good. Plentiful supplies of shine skin material to satisfy market demand. GWS is tighter in supply but should meet demand expectations. The price in origin has drifted lower but the freight increases more than absorbed these.

We have not heard much about crop quality this year, which will impact the differential between AA and A grades, but this should become apparent in a few weeks.

The challenge as in previous years is the pesticide management of all stocks. As usual we will be conducting a full suite of tests on all shipments prior to despatch from China. This has provided us lots of confidence that our material meets all relevant regulations regardless of final destination.

Linseed

Some good news in that with improving weather in Kazakhstan after the earlier flooding optimism is returning to the crop prospects. Combined with a good carryover we see no supply issues. Ukraine is also offering material, but the cleaning facilities are currently unaccredited.

It is shaping up to be a demand led market, and a lot of this will depend on China and their appetite for flax. Of course, as Russian linseed incurs increasing duty rates into the EU, it becomes more attractive to other markets who have no such restrictions. Therefore, we might expect China to cover significantly from the Russian harvest.

Canadian flax is also being offered at good levels.

Sesame seed

A complicated situation developing in the sesame world. Large crops in Pakistan (340,000mt) and Brazil (130,000mt) have pushed some natural sesame prices to very low levels. Pakistan in particular which consumes very little sesame domestically, looks to export promptly its crop and expects China to cover much of its demands. With China a little slow to cover they have looked to other buyers. Brazil will sell most of its crop to India, but the material is not of particularly good quality and carries pesticide risks, so will be used domestically in India not to support the export market.

Africa has problems, from East Africa; civil war, drought, famine and poor infrastructure is having a major impact on sesame supplies, W. Africa continues to have huge logistical challenges.

India expects a smaller crop in October, initially predicted to be -15%, but recent torrential rains in the premium growing regions (300mm in 12h) has caused flooding and damaged plants. The extent is unknown, but it comes at a critical time for the crop, and as we know sesame does not like too much moisture when growing.

Central America is planting now, but we expect a declining acreage here as has occurred in recent years.

The market dynamics are changing on sesame this season, with traditional origins struggling with available quantities and newer regions struggling on quality. There is sesame available, but of the wrong quality and in the wrong countries. Expect a wider spread between natural and hulled prices too.

Hulled Millet

Ukraine is harvesting and yields currently look smaller than hoped for. As much as 25% below forecast. Demand is good, particularly from USA and Asian countries. So, the situation is set for firmer prices in the new season, particularly in the EU where import duty is re-instated on Ukrainian material now.

Russian millet is out of favour in EU.

Sunflower

As we have been advising, the situation in Europe is not good. Yields are down across the region and forecasts continue to be written down. Ukraine is seeing 30-40% yield reductions. Bulgarian And Romanian forecasts are down by 15-20%, at levels not seen for over ten years.

Carryover stocks are lower than previous seasons. As a consequence of all of this farmers are demanding high prices for raw material.

Finally, to top the situation, the seed quality is poor. Seeds are small and since hullers rely on selecting larger seeds from the crop the impact on kernels is greater than the oil crushers.

Prices can only go upwards.

Poppy

Generally, forecasts from Czech Republic are good and as the largest producer this is good news, and prices will definitely come down from the highs of this season. Other regions have smaller crops generally but will follow the market.

We do not expect a huge price reduction, however, we would anticipate around 20% from the highs of 2023/24.

Quinoa

Poorer harvest in Bolivia and strong demand from USA & Asia has firmed prices recently. In Peru large volumes of material unsuitable for USA/EU markets combined with the Government supporting the market by buying stocks is making the EU/USA market material increase in price. Freight is starting to increase from the region somewhat delayed on other routes as we usually see.

Chia

Drought has impacted on yields, and optimism is disappearing fast. Paraguay has reduced forecasts by 20,000mt to 50,000mt. The drought also impacts on river levels, and Paraguay is totally dependent on being able to ship product out by river, being land locked.

As a consequence of this suppliers are reluctant to offer too far forward, and prices are correcting upwards.

Going to be a tricky year!