The New Year has injected huge uncertainty into the FX markets, with President Trump’s actions in the Gulf, and any subsequent fall out. In addition the race to complete ideally a ‘Free Trade’ Brexit by 31st December 2020, will put some pressure on Sterling until the mechanism is clear. The pending March budget in the UK will also impact Sterling, as the end to austerity will have an impact on government borrowing etc.
FX Monthly movement
- US$/ £ 1.31 up
- US$/ € 1.11 up
- £/€ 1.17 unchanged
Challenges on the supply of organic seeds has been our major concern over the past period, as more and more suppliers withdraw from this sector due to the challenges faced. We see this as a continuing trend through 2020.
After a rapid escalation in prices the market has stabilised, at least for now, The expectation that the USA might relax trade tariffs on pumpkin that were imposed at the beginning of 2019, has stopped the increase in price for the ‘SS ‘A’ grade which was being favoured by the USA due to the lower price. If the duty is raised we will need to watch and see if buyers switch back to AA or stay with A grade. This will impact the price spread between the grades.
Otherwise, we are putting a lot of effort into ensuring the Goat head thorn risk in GWS type pumpkin is controlled/eliminated from our supply chain. This contaminant has appeared recently due to a change in harvesting techniques in China.
Strong demand and supply problems have seen linseed prices continue to increase. We are hitting bad weather times now, so we will not see prices decline until new crop harvests. So far prices have gone up around 15-20%.
In India domestic demand has reversed the steady weakening of prices. We expect this to change during January and see prices ease slightly, since all the basics indicate adequate global supply for 2020.
Central America, has collected a good crop, and we are awaiting details of seed quality.
Prices are steady from Ukraine and elsewhere, there is plenty of import quota available, so apart from some logistical issues in the supply chain we do not anticipate problems or volatility here now.
Prices are up around 15-20%, similar to linseed, and this correction is somewhat overdue. Strong demand and suppliers running behind with orders helped fuel the correction. Prices are unlikely to weaken again now, and may continue to steadily increase.
Little change in the market situation in the last month. Supplies are committed from most sources, and prices firm. Australia is expecting a smaller crop this season, but supplies will not reach EU until March/April, and the impact of the bush fires, if any, is as yet unknown. Certainly it will not help with the quantity available! We anticipate prices staying firm this season now, but would not expect significant increases from current levels.