Pumpkinseed kernels

With Spring festival over prices have started slightly higher as expected. The US tariff situation has added to this since the decline in expected tariff creates anticipated increased demand. We shall see. As mentioned above Chinese suppliers are offering more competitively in Euro’s than US Dollars currently.

It is going to be interesting to see where plantings are for 2026 harvest since there was undoubtedly moves earlier from the Chinese government to encourage the development of major crop lines: soya, sunflower etc to counter the trade conflicts. This would tend to take acreage from minor crops like pumpkin.

Linseed

Stronger demand from China has firmed prices in Kazakhstan and coincides with Canadian processors holding back supplies looking for higher prices. Combine this with reported negative VAT changes in Kazakhstan all adding to firmer prices. In fact some exporters have halted supplies as they assess the situation.

Indian new crop is approaching, but prices are not yet attractive although quality is expected to be good as usual.

Finally Golden linseed is in tight supply and some importers have been tempted with Canadian material which is of very mixed quality and higher HCN levels compared to Kazakhstan and other EU sources.

Sesame seed

Change is in the air on sesame we think. It seems certain that Brazil, the new boy on the block, will have a significantly smaller crop this season. As last year where the impact of this rising origin shifted global markets the same could happen again. Last season Brazil stole the Chinese market from Pakistan. This will cause Pakistani farmers to reduce plantings since there is no domestic demand for sesame.

Nigeria is also looking at a reduced crop quantity of natural sesame.

These facts have already led to a 10/15% increase in natural sesame prices.

India which will have its summer harvest in a few months has increased domestic plantings we believe, but no data is available yet. But it seems likely India might rely less on imports in the coming period.

This increase in natural sesame levels will filter through to hulled seed as demand increases.

In the USA buyers are reflecting on which origin provides best value now and this is likely to see demand shift back to India from Africa or South American origins.

Hulled Millet

New material is limited and of poorer quality, even at these higher levels as processors focus on fulfilling contracts concluded earlier in the season. It has been a disappointing season for demand this year so after two large crops and cheap prices farmers will be encouraged this season and look to grow additional quantities despite the overall lower demand.

Sunflower

Bulgaria is struggling against cheap competition from other regions such as Ukraine who are selling sunflower at cheap levels depressing the global market making life difficult for premium Bulgarian hullers. The oil market stays firm making kernels very much the poor relation in demand for raw material.

Historically the kernel market is at pretty low levels compared to the last five years. It has dipped lower but actually is quite competitive as we see other seeds increase. This should be considered for forward cover requirements.

Poppy

As previously reported Australia is gathering a large crop of poppy which should come available for shipment May onwards arriving for EU/UK autumn. The premium Czech material remains stable in price, whilst the lower quality grades have dipped slightly as demand remains disappointing. Potentially due to trade barriers issues with Russia etc.

Poppy looks good value currently.

Quinoa

El Nino Costero has impacted growing conditions in Peru with flooding and landslides in coastal regions. It has just been upgraded to medium/high impact risk and will have an effect on movement of grains from the highlands. However, the impact on the quinoa crop is minimal we believe. Prices have remained firm meanwhile and should continue until new crop. Bolivia will harvest first the premium quality material.

India also has a larger crop coming in the Spring but is still challenged to provide a quality equitable to Peru. Challenges in processing it to remove the bitter saponins amongst other issues make it unattractive for EU/USA packers but watch this space in the future!

USA demand will set the market direction in the coming weeks.

Chia

A lot of focus on the upcoming India crop which is undoubtedly larger than last year. Estimates range from 30-65,000 metric tonnes. But quality is very variable and not all will be suitable for consumption in EU/UK/USA. Whatever it will give Paraguay a challenge this coming season.

Paraguayan exports have held up well despite the disastrous crop in 2025 with supplies being reinforced with material from Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil due to porous borders.