Ingredients Market Report: April 2025
FX Monthly movement: US$/£ 1.34 | US$/€ 1.17 | £/€ 1.14
Ingredients Market Report: April 2025
FX Monthly movement:
US$/£ 1.34 | US$/€ 1.17 | £/€ 1.14
General news
Attention has switched from the ever-changing tariff situation in the USA impacting global supply routes to the conflict in the Middle East. This has had an immediate impact on both transport and freight rates. The initial impact will be absorbed by ourselves for clients already contracted but going forward prices will reflect the higher charges.
Of course supply chain disruption immediately occurs too. Ports in the region become congested as cargo bound for the Gulf is offloaded, or countries prioritise the arrival of oil and gas vessels to keep their economies going. Sailing times change and transshipment options further delaying cargo arrival occurs. Fundamentally supply chains get longer and more expensive.
We can only urge clients to place contracts timely and also give call off schedules or place orders for delivery so we can plan around them.
Allergen & pesticide levels are rising to the top of people’s priorities too. To control these items in the supply chain beyond the origin processor is almost impossible in seeds and grains. The nature of the items, as break crops, or originating from small cash crop farmers makes isolating any risk of farm level contamination almost impossible. For allergens, the drift from neighbouring farms, previously grown crops in the field, handling equipment, storage areas, transport all introduce a risk, be it of low level, of cross contamination. For pesticides control of farmers using up stocks of chemicals, hot spots of contamination in parcels of non homogenous material make it difficult to control so we must rely on robust sampling protocols to minimize the risk and control as best we can. When MRL’s are found to exceed it is normally due to non representative sampling technique and generally still at levels non injurious to health.
Finally let’s not forget that in Northern hemisphere we are planting our crops now, new crops need fertilisers, fertiliser’s are energy intensive and often originate from the Arabian Gulf and are going up in price. If farmer inputs go up, they have to sell their crops for more. This has all happened at the worst time for farmers, we will see stronger prices through 2026/27 regardless of what happens in coming weeks.
Pumpkinseed kernels
Demand for premium grades continue to be firm and we see prices gradually increasing and expect it to continue in the medium term. The lower grades still represent good value and should be covered through until end 2026 in our opinion.
We are in the midst of planting time now in China. It is estimated that there will be a carry over of shine skin, but much of it will be unusable for EU/USA markets. The Chinese Government is instructing large farms to plant 70% primary food items: wheat, soya, maize, rice. and so, reducing the area for pumpkin. Also the Iran conflict has caused disruption with sunflower seeds destined for the Middle East being returned to China so depressing the market for sunflower. Farmers at this critical time might therefore favour pumpkin as their minor crop. But what ever we do not see a huge pumpkin crop for 2026 although anticipate adequate stocks as long as the weather is favourable.
Linseed
Between season once again and a changing picture with spot prices often cheaper than forward as sellers try to clear inventory. Russia’s large crop is heading primarily to China giving the EU/UK greater availability from Kazakhstan currently.
Golden linseed imports form Canada are up, despite concerns with HCN levels, but with EU/Kazakhstan supplies tight it is about the only option.
India is harvesting now and organic brown prices look favourable currently. History indicates buyers should cover early for the season.
Sesame seed
India will have to rely on its own harvest, which is happening now, for the next few months as imports decline for a variety of economic and supply chain reasons. Planting areas were reduced due to depressed pricing so we do not see room to move lower. Especially for hulled seed which is very energy intensive and this market has already increased significantly in price.
Brazil is going to have a much smaller crop this season and is still plagued with pesticide issues so another factor that will see sesame firm in the medium to long term.
We feel the bottom of the market is passed now.
Hulled Millet
The market continues to increase as availability drops. Little new material being offered as suppliers struggle to fulfil prewritten contracts with stocks short overall.
With Ukraine so short, Poland takes the opportunity to increase prices which are already up 75% from harvest. The situation will not improve before new crop. The higher prices should encourage farmers to plant more, so all being well, we should see things drop off. If this does not happen, Ukraine will need to rely on imports and this will stall any decrease.
Sunflower
Complicated market situation developing. Bulgaria has recently imported large volumes of Argentine material which has tested positive for pesticides, and should be directed to use in Bio diesel, not necessarily a bad thing with the current global energy crisis. In fact we see Asian countries also increasing Bio diesel quota which generally firms the sunflower market globally. This situation is not going to change so there is an underlying bullish tone to sunflower now. A little like linseed there are some ‘spot’ opportunities, and a small discount on new crop material. But in the current situation sunflower feels unstable.
Poppy
Poppy looks good value currently. With weak demand and ample stocks. EU crops are four months away at least and hopefully will bolster supply further. We would recommend extended forward cover to avoid mishaps.
Quinoa
Harvesting is starting imminently in Peru and we will get an idea if the January drought has impacted yield and quality significantly. But currently we expect the 2026 harvest to exceed 2025.
The energy situation in Peru is heightened by a recent explosion at a primary gas plant near Cusco limiting supplies locally and pushing prices higher still.
Chia
Very little EU compliant material left in Paraguay and what is available commands high prices. So, we focus on 2026 harvest now. Farmers have started to plant earlier to avoid the issue of early frosts which devastated the 2025 harvest. This was somewhat interfered with due to unseasonally high temperatures in February, but overall, we expect an increased area in 2026 over 2025.
Due to the small crop in Paraguay in 2025 supplies from Argentina and Bolivia played a more significant role in 2025 and it will be interesting to see if this is maintained in 2026.
Currently attention is on the Indian new crop which is available at good prices and should be covered now in our opinion.
