Pumpkinseed kernels

As we head towards season end, there is strong demand both domestically and from USA is pushing prices of compliant material higher and higher. Developing markets in India, Middle East, Russia adds to demand pressure. Whilst we do not expect a carryover of compliant material and a crop similar to 2025 the demand picture anticipates prices starting higher than current crop.

For GWS we can see the end of its viability as a product coming closer and would encourage all buyers to prepare to switch to alternate grades. When you then consider the pesticide compliant material available product for the 2026 harvest is going to be very small.

Linseed

Low demand currently in EU has stabilised prices for brown. Golden linseed is now exhausted for this season. As we switch to new crop, we know weather is favourable and planted area is up. But a long way to go. The concerning news is escalating freight costs through Russia and the 20% export tax unless it is waived due to challenges from various sectors. We shall see.

India remains uncompetitive and Canada has increased prices due to logistics costs primarily.

Sesame seed

Globally sesame is very bullish, and prices have increased considerably in last few weeks. We believe this is likely to continue or at least remain firm for several months.

In India we were already looking at a smaller crop. Now delayed monsoon and lower quantity of the rains that have fallen in Southern India have slowed planting for the autumn crop. Farmers are also starting to develop cotton and groundnuts. El Nino impacts are already being felt in India adding further concern.

As reported the Brazilian crop is significantly lower as farmers switch away due to the poor return last season for sesame. Whilst this shortfall for China can be filled by Pakistan, we see their production likely to decline as sales were disappointing last season.

Global demand, with the exception of China, which has temporarily high inventory, has been high.

So, in conclusion the next few weeks should show a path for sesame pricing which at best is stable and at worst climbing.

Hulled Millet

No carryover and dry weather forecast for the summer paints a gloomy picture in Ukraine. The crop area is expected to increase but there will still be a shortfall against global demand. Last season 10,000mt was carried over from 2024 which was a bumper season and this year will not reach the same area.

Production costs are higher; fertiliser is up and demand up. Prices will therefore follow.

Other regions can produce; Russia, China, Kazakhstan but accredited and approved origin facilities are a challenge.

Sunflower

A worrying supply situation developing for the end of the season with very scarce raw material. Smaller facilities have already closed and others fulfilling orders only. The new crop projections are positive with a good acreage, but we have been here before in the last two seasons. It seems farmers are wary of selling too early too, with temperatures across EU exceeding 40C and little rain in the forecast.

Whilst sunflower oil production globally is exceeding demand, most other vegetable oils are in deficit so this shortfall will be absorbed by the surplus sunflower. It is a nervy market situation.

Poppy

Going to be an interesting season. Demand is definitely weaker and alkaloid levels are becoming tighter. Unless grown for confectionary use it means the seed must be treated to reduce levels and this is a relatively expensive process. So fundamentally prices will increase. We do not see a shortage developing however, although some EU/UK crops will once again be weather impacted. Price is going to be related to alkaloid levels, so analysis certificates and control are key to receiving the correct quality.

Quinoa

We are a little concerned about the developing situation in Peru. The quality arriving at the processors is of lower quality with higher dark grains, higher impurities which will be suitable for Codex quality but not EU standards.

We would expect Bolivia to sell its lower grades to Peru, whilst exporting premium material at high prices, but political unrest and transport issues are delaying the flow of this material. El Nino impacts this region significantly usually, further adding to the firm tendency for quality material.

Chia

Everything was positive; planting area, weather etc. then June arrived and consistent rain and some early frost. Remember 2025? Sellers dried up ‘just in case’. So far the impact seems limited, especially compared to last year, but quality concerns over the seed are increasing due to rain damage. Higher moisture at harvest potentially leads to desiccants and thus a higher percentage of non-compliant material due to herbicide levels. Next report should have a clearer direction.

Unusually Indian material is trading higher than South America this season, driven by domestic demand in part.