Ingredients Market Report: May 2026
FX Monthly movement: US$/£ 1.35 | US$/€ 1.17 | £/€ 1.15
Ingredients Market Report: May 2026
FX Monthly movement:
US$/£ 1.35 | US$/€ 1.17 | £/€ 1.15
General news
Lots of water under the bridge in April, but fundamentally the issues remain the same, with huge uncertainty for multiple reasons remaining in supply chains generally.
The repercussions of the Iran conflict are yet to be felt but ripples spread everywhere. From vessel schedules, to energy costs, fertilizer prices, revised planting priorities driven by Governments to protect food security domestically. The prediction for increased costs of finance, inflation the list continues and very few items are beneficial to pricing or availability.
We are yet to get into the vagaries of crop forecasts and predictions for 2026 harvests. What happens to tariffs beyond July 2026. Allergen & pesticide regulations in EU etc.
In the end uncertainty is in control currently of supplies, and we all need to plan to minimize the impacts by thinking ahead.
Pumpkinseed kernels
Lots of uncertainty over areas sown for 2026 harvest as Government bodies encourage farmers to grow main stream crops such as wheat, soya and maize. In addition farmers are looking at alternate grades which are popular in the domestic market such as lady nail. For old crop and potentially new crop prices continue to steadily increase. Due to availability and location of suitable pesticide compliant, non Xingang material.
it’s hard to see EU/USA compliant material reducing in price in the foreseeable future.
Linseed
Whilst Kazakhstan material continues to flood into the EU, its shipments to China have increased even more, approximately 100% up on previous years. This is also the primary destination for Russian material where exports are also up overall but roughly half to EU.
Canadian material has a change of status on importation now. Which is a vote of confidence in Canada’s control of GM varieties which effectively suspended imports fifteen years ago. The issue here is finding suitable GFSI compliant facilities plus HCN and heavy metal suitable material, so we expect most Canadian imports to go to the crushing facilities as opposed to reaching appropriate confectionary grade standards.
Sesame seed
The Spring harvest is collected and we are seeing deliveries to market yards around 30/40mt daily which is expected to increase in coming days. Korea has published a tender for 12,000mt and India expects to win the majority of this. Prices are firming due to export demand , fuelled to some degree by the knowledge that the Brazilian crop due July is significantly smaller than previous seasons and prices will be higher. Africa also sees prices firming.
The autumn crop in India is being planted now but a significantly higher percentage of the crop is black sesame so we see hulled and white natural prices increasing in the coming weeks.
Congestion at ports continues and supply chains lengthen all adding to cost for sesame.
These factors will drive prices from all origins.
Hulled Millet
Prices continue to increase as old crop supplies remain tight and focus switches to interest in new crop supplies. Ukraine is expecting to plant up to 40% more area than 2025, but this is still significantly below the 2024 harvest. So whilst optimists expect prices to drop, there is a long way to go re growing conditions and crop inputs. Also we are unlikely to see the low prices of 2024 again.
Sunflower
We are hearing of supply shortages in stock availability and prices moving up accordingly. Supported by increased shipping costs and supply times. Whilst we expect good plantings for 2026 harvest they are roughly 50% behind this time last year due to cold weather creating unfavourable germination conditions. Things are set to improve in this respect, but will there be sufficient moisture. But the forecast is for increased plantings, increased yield and good new crop. However we heard this in 2025 and 2024! Caution we feel at this moment.
Poppy
Market is quite depressed and this is impacting the likely areas planted by the major producing country; Czech Republic. In 2025 just under 30,000mt was harvested, but the forecast for 2026 is likely to be significantly lower due to the drop off in demand, primarily from Russia and Eastern European buyers.
As ever poppy is potentially extremely volatile, the total global production of 60-70,000mt means a small shift can have dramatic price implications.
Quinoa
As previously mentioned harvesting was delayed, but now material is starting to appear at processors facilities. Much of this early material needs drying prior to cleaning adding some further delay. Prices are yet to be established but the indications are positive for lower levels this season due to increased availability of white, whereas red & black remain available in limited quantities.
Peru’s political situation adds concern to the supply situation, but this is something we have learnt to live with over the past few seasons.
Chia
Paraguay is sold out of old crop now. The new crop is all sown and weather is favourable so far. After the disaster last season we do not expect processors to be early forward sellers of unharvested material.
Strong demand in India has firmed their prices compared to previous seasons, but the crop is good and this origin is clearly on the map now and for the foreseeable future.
Title image source: Encyclopædia Britannica, www.britannica.com/place/Strait-of-Hormuz
