Ingredients Market Report: November 2025
FX Monthly movement: US$/£ 1.34 | US$/€ 1.17 | £/€ 1.15
General news
A relatively quiet month for contracts being placed due we feel to general global uncertainty and building a lack of confidence along with realignment of trade patterns. The biggest indicator of this is probably freight rates which have continued to weaken as demand has been poor. The general feeling is that a lot of buyers stocked up their inventory early to deal with supply chain issues and for the USA variable tariff strategy which has delayed annual contract placement.
Product news has been generally disappointing with supply issues or poor crops/yields in most regions. Prices have not really reacted because of lack of demand and some early cover already taken, but potentially the next moves will be upwards and if demand is strong, prices could increase significantly.
Changing origins are also becoming apparent as new regions develop alternative crops, more below but it will lead to technical challenges to take advantage of competitive supplies.
Pumpkinseed kernels
The crop in China being so small has led to a steady, but slow, increase in prices. This has been held back by weak demand, particularly from USA, due to tariff uncertainty, along with challenges to meet EU regulatory requirements. Speculators have acquired large inventories as they anticipate prices continuing to increase with the potential for significant increases if demand changes.
Pumpkin kernels will not drop in price this season until at least December 2026, and if China’s agricultural policy to boost domestic corn and soya production continues, we will expect smaller harvests. To secure material from regions other than Xingang also firms legitimate supplies.
Linseed
All eyes on Kazakhstan as they try to complete their harvest before the weather breaks. So far around 75% is harvested, which is a good result. Prices are supported by demand from China, an easy destination for exporters compared to EU/UK. These destinations are further hampered by supply chain delays across the Belarus/Polish border. Reports of 4/5000 trucks awaiting clearance indicate the size of the problem.
Canada has a good crop and we see prices slipping, but for UK/EU buyers HCN, micro and admix issues continue to be a problem.
As previously advised Russian duties increase on 1st January and oil crushers and animal feed compounders have stockpiled Russian product in advance.
Sesame seed
IOPEPC sesame conference is being held now in Dubai and will provide more information about global supply patterns, but what is known is that poor weather and continual rain has spoilt large amounts of the Indian harvest. This is a particular problem for buyers of hulled who know that India cannot use imported Brazilian seed or others due to pesticide levels in the natural seed being noncompliant for USA/EU markets.
Brazil and Pakistan have made good sales to China and this is reducing the amount of offers from these regions and firming prices as sellers look to capitalise on a reduced inventory. Nigeria also has adjusted its expected harvest quantity upwards by 10%, but reports of poor growing conditions cast a doubt on this number.
For buyers of black sesame be warned. The available material is exhausted until new crop which will not be available in EU until July 2026. Prices for remaining stock are firm and increasing. It is a precarious situation.
Hulled Millet
It looks like the harvest in Ukraine is down 40%, although due to the amount planted the availability is still good. The EU has renewed the quota for imports at 33,000mt which will allow Ukrainian material to flood the market once more. Until then we see the tight situation continue and prices edge upwards.
Organic material will continue to be a challenge, however.
Sunflower
Despite continual crop reductions in forecasts across Easten Europe and Russia, prices have declined a little and now stabilized. The oil market meanwhile continues to increase which one would expect to mean kernel prices have to go up. Perhaps one glimmer of opportunity is the Kazakhstan crop, which is a bumper harvest up 30%, but export taxes keep the price high. Should this be reduced it will relieve pressure on the market in Europe to some degree.
Poppy
Eastern European prices remain high, permitting other southern hemisphere supplies to be imported, although supply chain length makes planning and availability tricky. We would recommend clients place contracts at least 5 months ahead to be certain of prioritisation on available stocks.
Quinoa
Strong demand has helped boost prices after a small harvest started the trend. Asia & beyond have strong demand and EU buyers have also been active. This will surely lead to increased plantings in Bolivia/Peru but emerging new origins; India, Spain and Canada will create a price challenge.
Red and black demand is increasing and to some extent caught processors and growers out.
Chia
What a disaster! Processors are trying to renegotiate contracts written prior to the frosts, raw material prices continue to increase driven by Chinese demand and the lack of availability. Alternative origins are catching up with the price levels fast.
Organic options are exhausted.
Only advice cover requirement for 2026 and move on.
