Pumpkinseed kernels

China currently enjoying their autumn holiday where millions return to their hometowns for a week or two. It comes as crop predictions of reduced harvests in the primary growing regions of Xingang and Inner Mongolia are worse than industry expectations, which weren’t good to start with! Raw material prices have been increasing day by day. This trend has been spotted by the speculators and we fully expect this to fuel the market further. We have been warning of significantly smaller crop for some months now, and we will see the full impact on prices of this after Anuga. Certainly, we are off the bottom rung and will not see the levels enjoyed for the last few months again.

Organic material is being quickly bought and will run out very quickly, premiums are widening for material that is suitable, particularly for the USA market.

Linseed

We are relieved the Polish/Belarus border has reopen to allow cargo to flow, otherwise the impact on the market would have been severe. There is a back log of trucks and rail cars, but hopefully it will soon clear. Of course, the closing of the border again is a high risk which will likely have an impact on future freight costs for raw material as transporter protect against the cost of future delays. We shall see.

Kazakhstan continues to report a good crop however, but if it can’t reach Europe, it does not help much. Land routes will be preferred into China and Russian markets.  Quality might have been impacted by late rains, but as yet we have no real info on this.

Elsewhere, Indian prices remain strong and uncompetitive for most of the world, Canada has a good forecasted crop having increased their sowing area.

The next significant change is the hike in duty on Russian material entering the EU in January. It certainly won’t soften prices.

Sesame seed

The market is still really weighing up the dramatic shifts that have occurred in the last few months. Firstly, continuing poor weather has seriously impacted the Indian crop. Heavy rain in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madyha Pradesh stopped some farmers from sowing. Crop forecasts are as low as 50,000mt against a normal season of 300,000mt. We are also entering the high domestic demand season in India, so prices are really unlikely to fall.

Globally there is plenty of natural sesame in regions which are not immediately suitable for EU/UK/USA markets. Brazil & Pakistan have plenty and both look to China to take their crop. Africa also has plenty of natural. India will have to import, but a lot of this seed will not meet quality standards for the above markets.

Finally, the 50% tariff in USA on Indian sesame causes challenges in supplying this market for hulled seed in particular but also sufficient quantities of natural seed.

A difficult situation is developing as the whole global market realigns its thinking.

In Central America planting continues but volumes decline again. No official forecasts exist, but the crop is being replaced by alternate products. The above situation could reverse this trend but is there enough of an industry left to supply a significant uptick in demand?

Hulled Millet

With the majority of Ukraine now harvested it looks like the crop is 30-40% down on last seasons bumper harvest. It therefore does not mean millet will be short, but it probably does mean prices will firm further through 2026.

Poland has a good harvest and this will temper rises, but until the quota situation on Ukrainian material is established for 2026 there is added uncertainty in price movements. However, we can be fairly confident they will be upwards. Just how much!

Sunflower

Due to late planting the harvest was late and has been proceeding through September. We have had few reports on quality or quantity, but the shortage of carryover will keep prices stable to firm for the short term at least. As quality and likely harvest quantity becomes known we will see the market react. However, vegetable oils globally are showing general firmness so it will be hard to visualize a situation which sees sunflower kernels move in the opposite direction.

Poppy

Eastern European prices are broadly stable providing price stability elsewhere for lower grades. Availability of material is limited globally which is always a concern with poppy seed where supply-demand is finely balanced. Poor market information is why poppy sometimes rebounds very fast and unexpectedly.

Quinoa

Supply from Peru continues to be short against strong demand pushing prices higher, not helped by adverse foreign exchange movement in Peru. A small crop due this quarter will do little to alleviate the situation.

Boliva has a better situation but commands premiums for its material already.

Freight is increasing too.

Chia

Prices remain firm for any available material and all importers are waiting for containers to clear Asuncion where container traffic is high adding further delays and freight rates increase daily to add fuel to the fire.

The quality of the raw material is variable  and as the crop is significantly reduced as previously reported stockholders are gathering material and waiting for further increases.

Organic material is very short and the USA market is preferred for shipments as material meets their requirements more readily.