Pumpkinseed kernels

An interesting situation is developing. We have reported for some time that the shine skin crop expectation is about 40% lower due to reduced planting area, however in the main growing areas, the number of fruits/plant is up about 50% increasing the expected yield and thus overall supply. The crop will definitely be smaller, but not as small as potentially it could have been. Of course, many clients favour different regions to the primary growing area so this matter must be considered in supply arrangements. To further aid supply domestic demand for shine skin is significantly down, partly due to economic conditions and partly as local demand favours lady nail varieties.

The GWS crop continues to decline as a crop with less than 10,000mt expected to be harvested this year.

There has been some damage to fruits in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rain and egg sized hailstones which damaged the pumpkins. We need to be watchful of microbiological levels in the coming crops.

Organic supplies for EU are going to be extremely tight this season in our opinion.

Linseed

The Kazakhstan crop continues to develop well, and is expected to be up year on year, assuming no climatic issues between now and harvest. It does take time to arrive at EU cleaners for processing and redistribution however, so we will not see it physically until November.

Ukraine planted lots of linseed this year, but the region once again is suffering excessive heat and drought, so we do not expect hugely increased volumes.

Prices will continue to be impacted by escalating rates of duty on Russian material within the EU, and where US/Canada tariff negotiations end. This last factor has the potential to see linseed cross the Atlantic from EU for culinary use in large volumes. The Canadian crop appears on the market in November too, and if EU material starts flowing West, then potentially Canadian material could become more competitive here. There is still the shadow of GM over Canadian brown, so it needs a GMO certificate in our opinion.

Golden linseed remains extremely tight nearby, strong demand for physical new crop deliveries will retain this situation for some time to come we feel.

Organic linseed still sees India as the primary source. Prices are stable, and the registration system has now been sorted so supplies are available.

Sesame seed

Markets have been stable now in India for several weeks. The reasons have been mentioned previously. Firstly, Brazil has flooded the market as a new origin with cheap sesame. India has bought and renegotiated several times but ultimately it has depressed the local market. The quality is not good enough for export hulling requirements for several reasons but including pesticides and mechanical damage due to harvest practices. The huge crop in Brazil was expected to go to China where trade agreements due to the BRICS agreement encourage sellers, but China ports have a huge inventory of sesame depressing demand. China will also have its own not insignificant crop in August.

However, things might be about to change in India. Increased local demand, picking up export enquiries and continuous downpours in MP, UP, Rajasthan and Gujarat all primary sesame growing areas. Whilst the monsoon is expected every year, it should be over so farmers can start planting. Until the rain stops farmers cannot plant, therefore the crop gets delayed or alternative crops are planted th cope with the rain and with local prices depressed due to unrealistically cheap imports this is a favourable option. Potentially therefore we could see India needing to rely on imports of natural sesame seed this coming season. These supplies will need to come from Africa for processing and re-export since Brazilian supplies are not suitable as already mentioned.

Pakistan also has huge stocks, but China firstly is not buying and if it does will favour Brazil as explained above. With no significant domestic market and poor relations with India, this natural sesame will be looking for a home.

Africa also has some harvests due with mixed expectations, but unlikely to impact global trends significantly.

Hulled Millet

Ukraine is not having good weather so the millet crop will be smaller in 2025 compared to the 2024 harvest. Prices have edged up a little, but the next month will be critical to the price trend. The EU has renewed quotas allowing material to flow into the community levy free which should support imports for the next few months.

Sunflower

The crop looks stressed again. Excessive heat across Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria and Ukraine are impacting yields and seed quality as in 2024. We have seen strong buying interest for both human consumption and bird food grades already as buyers anticipate higher prices.

Forecasts of crop expectations across Europe have been written down and are likely to be amended again.

Smaller processors are closed, and some larger suppliers are favouring existing clients for supply into the new season attempting to manage their risk and overall performance.

It is setting up to be another interesting year.

Poppy

European harvests are upon us and seed production looks OK, if not spectacular. Prices are holding up into the new crop at similar levels to the 2024 harvest, and we do not expect a significant drop in the market.

Dry weather across the EU will impact poppy yields somewhat we would expect, but to date have no figures on this.

Southern hemisphere supplies continue to trickle out, but we expect the annual shutdowns in November through January to disrupt supply chains once again increasing the reliance on EU supplies in Q1/2026.

Quinoa

The harvest is collected and there are ample stocks in Bolivia and Peru, but prices remain firm and even increase as demand continues at high levels. EU crops are already sold out and for the short term at least it looks like prices will continue to increase.

Red and black crops were smaller this year and will mean high prices for the whole of 2026, despite additional material becoming available in November from a small interim harvest.

Other regions do offer attractive levels for developing crops of Quinoa and perhaps this is the year to consider them.

Chia

Heavy rainfall and extremely cold temperatures have created huge anxiety across Paraguay as the crop damages are huge. So almost over a weekend, huge optimism turns to disaster. So often the way in South America.

There are no offers on the market for conventional or organic as processors assess the situation. Early cheap sales will be unlikely to be fulfilled due to the dramatic price adjustments expected.

Other origins have reacted the situation increasing their prices significantly.

There is more to come on this commodity whilst we conduct our assessments of the situation and will report further in our August report.