Ingredients Market Report: July 2025

The US$ has generally continued to weaken as a consequence of tariffs impacts on USA trade arrangements. The delay of the imposition of tariffs, whilst a relief in one respect, continues to draw out the uncertainty over this subject and how to plan as a consequence. However, it does provide an opportunity to cover US$ based commodities at more attractive prices for EU and UK clients.

General news

The US$ has generally continued to weaken as a consequence of tariffs impacts on USA trade arrangements. The delay of the imposition of tariffs, whilst a relief in one respect, continues to draw out the uncertainty over this subject and how to plan as a consequence. However, it does provide an opportunity to cover US$ based commodities at more attractive prices for EU and UK clients.

Freight rates continue to be volatile as routes are rebalanced to meet the flow of trade. Basically, however this means they are gradually increasing from the lows. There are rumours of EU port strikes and congestion issues which will potentially firm rates further. Obviously, the continued risk factor of Red Sea closure is impacting rates along with the approaching typhoon season in the Far East.

Finally warm unseasonal weather is on us again with temperatures above 35C in southern Europe during critical growing times for items such as sunflower. It feels a little like ‘Déjà vu’ from last year and is adding a firmness to pricing.

Pumpkinseed kernels

Old crop is at an end now and it is getting increasingly difficult to locate goods that meet EU/USA pesticide standards, particularly for the ‘A’ grades. This is leading to a wide price variation being offered and will explain any differences from importers. We will always supply compliant goods with n accredited analysis certificate.

We are expecting lower acreage of all grades as previously report, and whilst the carryover will be reasonable it will be limited in suitability as described above. We therefore do not anticipate a decline in price, and with demand switching to ‘A’ grade due to the significant price differential we expect the gap to narrow.

There is concern about the supply of organic material with the crop expected to be no more than 4,000mt, 50% of last year and strong USA demand is expected.

For now, however the weather is good for pumpkin production.

Linseed

Reports from Kazakhstan for their new crop are favourable in terms of planting, so it is all about weather now. Linseed is generally a pretty resilient crop.

Ukraine and Moldova are also expecting good crops.

Availability currently is tight, especially for golden linseed, which is effectively sold out, so prices remain firm on both items, but golden in particular.

The UK harvest will be poor in yield due to insufficient rain this Spring with the situation unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

In India the resetting of the organic certification system is leading to delays in the supply of this material which has strong demand. Hopefully this will be resolved within July, but prices are unlikely to weaken.

Sesame seed

Prices continue to be very attractive as the market is depressed with the flood of Brazilian offers and their approaching new crop. Whilst the seed is not suitable for western markets pesticide and heavy metal levels it has a knock-on impact to all material. It presents an excellent buying opportunity for now.

Pakistan is also offering natural sesame very competitively and recently won the majority of the Korean tender.

Premium Central American seed is also weakened by the market pressure although stocks are minimal, but this premium seed also presents a good buying opportunity at this time.

Hulled Millet

Ukraine’s harvest is forecasted to be lower than 2024, and adverse weather is reducing this forecast further. Prices have moved up for old crop material already. The EU has opened a new duty-free quota for the summer, which should encourage material to flow before new crop arrives.

As with many items organic production is reduced so prices may well increase.

Sunflower

We are back to a weather market! Extreme heat is currently impacting the region. It will impact the crop, but we do not know how much. There is still time for it to recover. But we see strong demand globally as nervous buyers cover their new crop requirements.

Old crop physical supply is a worry as usual at this time of year, as mills close for refurbishment or because of lack of raw material. We do not expect any price softening now.

Poppy

European crops will be harvesting shortly, and prices for new crops are more or less in line with the 2024 harvest. There are some cheaper Southern Hemisphere options available currently, but lead times are long.

As usual news from Czech Republic is limited but is not generally good. It feels like poppy may not drop but should not increase. But so far it is a little uncertain and we know how dramatic market changes can be!

Quinoa

Strong demand matched with ample supply has meant prices have remained firm and even increased a little for white quinoa. Red & Black varieties have smaller crops than previous years and prices will react accordingly.

Chia

Major concern across Paraguay as rainfall followed by extreme cold has severely damaged the crop which was almost ready for harvest. So, optimism for a huge crop has turned to panic! Sellers have largely withdrawn from the market, and defaults are being experienced due to lack of material and escalating prices.

Other origins have reacted as demand increases for their harvests.

The situation remains unstable and lacking clarity. Hopefully both with settle in July and we will have a better idea, but for sure quinoa will be trading at a higher level than the 2024 harvested material.

Currency update

FX Monthly movement:   US$/£ 1.36   |   US$/€ 1.17   |   £/€ 1.16

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Frank Horan

Frank Horan

Director
Nikki Divers

Nikki Divers

Director
Jake Yerrell

Jake Yerrell

Commercial Manager
Vera Grosse-Drieling

Vera Grosse-Drieling

Sales Manager
Micaela Camantigue

Micaela Camantigue

Senior Account Manager
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Joe Matthews

Sales Manager