Pumpkinseed kernels

We think it is pretty clear that planting areas are significantly reduced in China this year. Some predict a 50% reduction. This has certainly firmed the market, and we have definitely seen the bottom now.

As old crop reaches a conclusion supply of EU/USA compliant material is extremely short. We are finding many parcels are being rejected for pesticide residues. This adds complexity to the supply situation. EU/UK authorities do not check shipments for pesticides, so importers can risk consignments which are extremely attractively priced. Perhaps US$500/mt lower than conforming material. So, we would warn resisting cheap offers.

New crop GWS quantities already small are declining further, so shine skin will be the almost exclusive grade for export in 2025/26. The decline in domestic demand due to cost if living pressures in China will temper market rises to some extent, but not fully. The USA situation will also change dynamics increasing the demand for lower grades to combat the tariffs assuming the tariffs remain. Who knows the ultimate outcome!

Linseed

Old crop supply is plagued by large defaults out of Kazakhstan pushing the market firmer. Canadian farmers have reacted by increasing prices for old crop availability. Quality raw material is also becoming difficult to source now.

New crop plantings have increased for all oilseeds in many regions within Europe, including Moldova to assist with the supply situation as the duty on Russian material increases. There is some concern over the UK 2025 crop due to the extremely dry Spring. India has had a relatively poor crop, especially for organic linseed.

Sesame seed

India’s summer crop has been disrupted by significant early rains in the growing regions. This has hampered harvest and leads to the risk that farmers will need to use herbicides to prepare the crop for cutting. We will be monitoring our shipments as usual. But the crop is good in quantity, perhaps 130,000mt, however quality will be impacted.

Pricewise, sesame is still good value and should be covered. The Brazilian crop is due now and prices are extremely low depressing the global market. Large quantities are offered to India and China. The quality is not suitable for EU/USA/UK use due to pesticides and mechanical harvesting techniques which damage the seed. Brazil has made trade agreements to supply China, which will impact on the emerging Pakistan crop, where volumes have increased dramatically in recent years to meet the requirements of China. This is primarily natural sesame with only small amounts of hulled available.

Central American volumes are low and again should be covered through until March 2026 in our opinion.

Hulled Millet

Buyers have taken advantage of lower pricing in Q2/2025 and covered into the future. This includes strong Asian demand for millet. Wise decisions since current news is causing greater concern. Firstly, there is the poor conditions in Southern Ukraine which have reduced plantings and crop expectations next the EU has reapplied a quota system on Ukrainian cereals from beginning of June to protect price levels for EU farmers. This is the end of the wartime support package implemented in 2022 when Russia invaded which faced a huge backlash from farmers.

Sunflower

A tricky situation, prices are declining as processors optimistically expect a better harvest than 2024 and press for new crop sales. First, we need to get to new crop, however, and with supplies limited, some processors closed and customers tempted by new crop prices we see the potential for supply shortages through July to September. This has happened several times before. The rush for the first new crop deliveries also adds pressure to the supply situation. We would encourage clients to place their requirements now through until October to avoid disappointment in supply.

As to new crop, prices are currently around the average of the last 15 years. It could go either way!

Poppy

As we approach European new crops there is the usual optimism in pricing but the picture in East Europe is as always unclear on likely availability. Spanish quantities will be limited as usual, and of variable alkaloid levels depending on the alkaloid seed supplied.

Southern Hemisphere prices remain attractive for good quality consistent alkaloid seed levels, but the supply chain gets longer and longer.

Quinoa

Yield reductions and harvest delays due to the poor weather conditions in Peru, reported earlier have delayed arrivals of new crop thus delaying shipments. Bolivia appears to have performed better but has economic & logistical issues to overcome prior to product being exported easily. Generally, therefore prices are holding up and even increasing, supported by large orders from Middle Eastern buyers giving suppliers optimism for higher pricing.

The Spanish crop has been hit by wet weather which will delay harvesting into August, although availability whilst growing is limited.

Red & Black quinoa production is 10% down on 2024 and prices have reacted as might be expected.

Chia

The crop in Paraguay is well underway and so far, so good, after the early mishaps and replanting that occurred in some regions. The next few weeks are critical to the ultimate yield and quality, however. So, we will know about the supply situation towards the end of June. Frosts in the coming weeks, or abnormal conditions created by La Nina could significantly impact the market and if yields drop will there be adequate supplies to meet global demand that grows year on year.