Pumpkinseed kernels

The early news from growing regions shows strong reluctance for farmers to plant with either shine skin or GWS pumpkin due to the depressed prices. Domestic demand has not been so badly impacted, but new varieties suit this inshell demand and these are being preferred by farmers, so export grades will be further impacted.

The return to farmers this season has been negative so the situation is true and really there can only be one direction.

Linseed

As old crop stocks dwindle, we struggle to find good consistent quality, particularly of Golden linseed. Additionally, HCN compliant material of below 250mg is less available, and leads to lower grade prices in the market. This commodity could be dramatically impacted by tariffs, as the EU ramps up the duty on Russian material and USA adds 25% to Canadian imports. We could see a cross Atlantic trade of Canadian returning to the EU and EU material shipping to USA. Good for the shipping lines!

Indian organic harvest is upon us and looking favourable, along with their increasing tonnage of conventional product.

Sesame seed

Weak demand and strong supplies from South America are keeping this market depressed. India is about to add to the supply situation with their summer harvest, which continues to increase in quantity compared to the autumn crop. The market is at the bottom for basic grades in our opinion. Premium grades are in shorter supply as these origins produce fewer premium seed due to the global price trend, which makes them trade at bigger and bigger premiums.

Hulled Millet

The duty-free quota on Ukrainian material has gone ‘critical’ so will be exhausted shortly, if not already. Lower availability is also leading to firmer prices for Q2 onwards.

Ukraine will be planting next month, continuing into May with harvesting, weather permitting, in September as usual. The low prices this season will impact the area sown and subsequent supply for 2025/26.

Sunflower

Considering the shortage of supply, the market has stayed incredibly stable, as demand remained lacklustre. It is still expected to pick up and the shortage of raw material is likely to create a squeeze over the summer/early autumn shipments. The poor quality from 2024 has led to a surplus of lower grade chips on the market too.

Several facilities have closed until new crop supplies, and cash flow for hullers remains the challenge with raw material prices significantly above sales contracts made early in the season.

Sunflower pricing is linked to the vegetable oil market and this is impacted by tariff changes. China has imposed duties on USA soya, and exports are already declining, Brazil has a bumper harvest of soya underway so will pick up demand from China. Meanwhile China has imposed tariffs on Canadian canola (Rapeseed) oil. So many shifting dynamics makes forecasting tricky!

Poppy

We hare hearing news that the Czech Republic is looking at lower quantities for 2025, which will keep prices relatively high. The increased requirement for lower alkaloid levels is also meaning more and more poppy needs to be processed to meet these levels. This comes at a cost increasing the base price of the poppyseed. So, there is no real weakness in this market which has held firm levels this season.

Quinoa

Due to increased exports and prices in the 2024 harvest, plantings are up with some estimates indicating a 50% uplift. Unless things are very severe through the growing season, we should see a good-sized crop and prices easing. Reversing the trend of previous years the quantity of red & black quinoa is reducing, so these will buck the likely price trend.

Chia

Paraguay more or less sold out, and all looking forward to the new season. Planting is underway and we are looking forward to a bigger harvest if all goes well, although unlikely to meet the increase in demand. The poor yield after the extended drought this season concerns the outlook for the future, although rains have returned and river levels are rising.

We see an increased crop likely in Bolivia, although they will probably remain a net importer.

Other origin harvests are round the corner, and quantities are expected to be good. Quality is comparable so this will assist the global supply situation.