Pumpkinseed kernels

GWS supplies continue to be the challenge with pesticides at the front of the problem, whilst speculators spoil the market pricing strategy. The medium-term outlook for this grade is poor, with declining area sown each season, and all demand is export orientated.

Shine Skin is available in ample quantities and with demand impacted BY China domestic slowdown prices have drifted lower, although with adverse currency and freight movements this has not really been noticed by EU/USA buyers. Speculators have left this market alone in China too, looking at more volatile opportunities this season. We do not see a significant price movement as likely for the remains of 2024 but should demand pick up prices will start to increase. It feels like cover should be taken now since downside is limited. Farmers are not covering their cost of production currently.

Linseed

As of 1^st January, the duty on Russian material increased to 20% for EU destinations. This will firm prices from other origins into the EU, although potentially cut demand for non-Russian material outside the EU due to Russia needing to sell its crop to China etc.

As usual winter logistics challenges and the now accustomed transit issues for material through Russia add to prices in the short/medium term.

Our of Canada we see stable pricing with small increases expected in the coming months. Of course, threatened US tariffs could have a major impact here.

Golden linseed supplies continue tight, and prices reflect this and will keep on rising through the season.

Sesame seed

A lot of change in this market with shifting supplying regions and consumption patterns.  The impact of increasing allergen concerns in western economies, complication on importation too is depressing demand whereas Asian countries continue to enjoy sesame products. Brazil as a huge relatively new producer and the developing strength of the BRICS trade agreement are also shifting patterns.

However, India is gradually regaining its position on hulled sesame supplies due to its reliability on quality and shipment now, as the market realises African supplies are too haphazard. The Indian price is suppressed by large quantities of imports from Brazil and Africa. This seed cannot be used for export, but non the less depresses the local supplies pricing.

Currently Indian local demand is strong for the festival of sweets, and after this, eyes will turn to the Spring crop, which will be sown shortly.

Black sesame is pretty much exhausted now until this spring crop and prices have broken records. We would suggest you cover needs now through until July whilst there is inventory in the pipeline.

Hulled Millet

The EU has confirmed a new quota for Ukrainian material, but it is limited and covers multiple product codes so will soon be exhausted. This is to support those EU regions who are unhappy with depressed prices as Ukraine dumps material as fast as possible as opposed to risk it being destroyed/confiscated by Russia.

Demand outside the EU, in Asia and USA is picking up which will lead to a price movement upwards as supplies dwindle in Q1/2025.

Sunflower

Prices have remained stable through December, even declining slightly as demand slowed, but the fundamentals remain.

Sunflower oil demand is exceptionally high, in part driven by the poor rapeseed harvest in the EU in 2024, in addition Russia is trying to reduce exports for domestic supplies by increasing export duty to 75%.

So sunflower seeds are in short supply and will continue to be until September harvest 2025. Demand exceeds supply so prices need to increase to create balance, and this will occur when demand returns, as it must. The oil producing buyers have the advantage since they can use all the raw material available, whereas the hullers can only select the premium seeds of a certain size which are in extremely tight supply due to the poor harvest in 2024.

So, with strong oil demand and support, and limited suitable hulling kernels it is hard to not see kernel prices climb higher very soon.

Poppy

Supply chains are causing issues with Southern Hemisphere supplies this season, as shipping times and vessel availability get tougher. In the Northern Hemisphere it seems more likely that the expected large Eastern European crop failed to materialize. Other EU processors are sold out now.

There is a limited amount of lower alkaloid seed around, and prices are steady and not going to decline now.

Quinoa

The crop was planted late in Peru so harvest will be delayed, possibly into June. So, we hope growing conditions remain good with good rains in the next couple of months.  Raw material supply is reducing for EU compliant material, so prices are up and the differential between this and Codex material is widening.

Organic quinoa is pretty much exhausted now until new crop.

Chia

Paraguayan exports to EU have exceeded those to USA for perhaps the first time, although multiple consignments have been then rejected by EU authorities for noncompliant pesticide results. So, demand remains high from EU, but exporters favour USA demand due to the easier regulations.

Other origins seem to be more likely to expand supplies to EU in the coming years, where pesticide control is better, so African sources etc. are likely to increase.