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Recession is in the air for 2023, with most major economies suffering at some point in the next twelve months, if not already. Certainly the US is looking more likely to fall into recession with weakness in housing, service and manufacturing sectors. This might curtail the Fed’s plan to increase interest rates.

Risk sentiment is improving partly due to the recent apparent easing of US-China relations which is helping non-US currencies. The Fed has supported the dollar by implying further rate increases are on the cards. The Euro had recent encouraging news about industrial output which has given it some support after recent lows against the US$. Easing energy prices also helps the Euro but going forward it is likely to really be at the whim of the US$ and global risk appetite. Sterling whilst also more dependent on US$ strength/weakness will hope to be supported by the Autumn statement out this week.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and FX markets are particularly prone to this. With the global financial crisis, driven by all factors known to us, it is difficult to predict any movement therefore. Certainly, the deepening EU energy crisis as winter approaches. Recessionary fears globally are a major concern obviously, and the continual strengthening of the US$ adds to this.

It is worth considering for a moment the yearly movement on exchange rates and thus their impact on prices as the new season begins. At $/€1.19 last September prices were 19-20% better with regard to imports than today should raw material prices be similar. Meanwhile the £/€ is roughly similar and the £/$ is also worse by also 19-20%. Why is this happening despite Central banks intervention and interest rate rises? Well it is about the serious and more or less inevitable deep recessionary fears within the EU & UK.

The EU is struggling the most in these current trading conditions, with Germany announcing its first trade deficit in 30 years, and the Euro at its weakest point against the US dollar in ten years. The trade shock of rising import costs, oil & gas price levels and trade disruptions have come to bear severely. Euro zone inflation is rapidly increasing too.

The Euro has edged upwards in recent days as the situation in China relaxes a little and the sensitivity to the Ukraine/Russia situation settle down a little. This combined with a less pessimistic view of the potential rise in US interest rates has favoured the Euro and indeed Sterling. Sterling was also heled by the recent £15 billion fiscal package softening the cost-of-living issues faced by all. Currencies remain vulnerable to the global outlook however which is increasingly uncertain and thus volatility is here to stay.

The US dollar is definitely benefiting from the adverse risk scenario we are all feeling, and with Sterling under pressure due to political instability we are seeing rates reach their worst position for some years. The Euro will be supported by the ECB over the coming weeks with interest rises more or less guaranteed for July. But we are approaching US dollar parity which is incredible.

The Ukrainian-Russia situation still dominates international markets. With the US seeing increasing inflation there is some sentiment for a half percentage point interest rate hike which will assist keeping the US dollar firm. In the UK weak data, escalating inflation, and liquidity challenges brought on by rising prices has weakened Sterling. The UK is also performing worst in the global trade recovery where our exports have declined 14% against a global recovery of over 8%, The UK is the only country that has not recovered to pre pandemic level of exports, a symptom of Brexit.

Obviously, the situation that developed in Ukraine last week is and will continue to have a major impact on foreign exchange markets and equities. This volatility will remain for some time, although to date the impact has been relatively minimal bearing in mind the financial sanctions imposed on Russia. Fundamentally the Euro has taken the worst of the adjustment, followed by Sterling as funds move to safe haven currencies, in particular the US$. This will cause imports to increase price, although of course, exports will show some foreign exchange weakness to counteract the adjustment somewhat. It is very hard to see this situation change in the coming months.

Since the beginning of the year the US$ has strengthened slightly but largely rates have stayed stable. It is well established that interest rates will increase during 2022. In the USA the Federal reserve advised they expected to implement three increases through the year, and the EU/UK banks will almost certainly follow suit. Indeed, the Bank of England has indicated rates will go up first week of February.

The obvious concerns of the economic impact of the new variant have probably removed the risk of increased interest rates early in 2022, since the economic shock and risk of further lockdowns or escalating cases. But high inflation rates are leading to increased pressure for pay rises and whilst there appears little chance of these reducing, with Omicron adding further pressure to supply chains & labour shortages.

Currency update Currencies are moving around against each other currently as discussions regarding interest rates, Covid support programs and inflation continue. There is [...]

Sterling has taken a hit in the last few days dropping 2% the biggest daily fall this year. The economy grew quarter on quarter by 5.5%, but now fuel shortages, energy supplies, future taxes increases, escalating prices and the end of Furlough drag on the pound. The solution perhaps is to increase interest rates, but this will add to the cost of UK Government debt servicing, which would not be good news.

The news from the US of increasing inflation and soaring Covid cases, combined with limited further economic stimulation and low consumer confidence is allowing the US dollar to weaken against other currencies. In Europe inflation is also on the increase with problems in the blocks two major economies. In France inflation is above the blocks target rate and in Germany, factories are operating below pre-Covid levels, with car manufacturing particularly badly hit. Germany also has a political transformation coming with the end of the Merkel era within the month. The new chancellor will have to manage a surge in inflation combined with a drop off of demand and decide if this is simply a delay in demand or business lost.

The steady strengthening of the US dollar came to an end this week and gains were largely reversed as data from the US indicated growth was slower than expected, jobless figures continued higher than expected. The Fed’s decision not to ease their asset purchase scheme also bore on the dollar. The pound is supported by positive Covid news and Brexit news/performance, against the Euro which is currently concerned about the inflation rate for the remainder of 2021.

The supply chain challenges continue to be the major factor influencing things. Freight rates are still climbing, congestion and container supply issues are spreading over to South/Central America now and all supply chains are lengthening. It is a precarious situation, and ultimately increasing costs significantly. We do not expect the situation to improve before 2022. As an indicator, freight from China has increased over 1000% in six months, from $1000/fcl to $ 12000. This adds $ 500/mt for products from this region.

The pound has performed well over the last month mainly riding on the success of the vaccine program and a series of economic data which predicts the UK economy will recover faster and stronger than previously anticipated. Eyes are turning to inflation now, partly as a consequence of the over heated property market, but also due to the increasing cost to all supply chains of freight and other issues. This factor is an impact in EU & USA economies too. Whether the effect in transitory or permanent will impact WHAT, IF Any action, is taken.

The Euro has out performed both Sterling and the US Dollar in the past month, and as vaccine delivery appears to be improving across the region, there is the return of some optimism. In the UK, Sterling has been more stable than the turmoil in the pre-Brexit years. The next weeks elections might introduce some volatility, particularly if the Scottish nationalists perform well and it increases pressure on another referendum for independence. Output figures, strong financial support and an accelerating vaccination program is supporting the US$, but growth prospects are also increasing globally, and in the Eurozone in particular, which cancels out some US Dollar support.

Two major considerations for thew FX markets currently apart from the problematic roll out of vaccinations around the globe. Firstly, increased tensions between Ukraine & Russia, with troop build ups and an escalation of the risk by USA authorities. This has largely gone unnoticed in these current times. Secondly the US has unveiled its economic recovery plan, which is going to focus on economic stimulus for national infrastructure and an ‘onshoring’ of jobs in the manufacturing sectors. Sterling is reacting positively to the planned lifting of restrictions over the coming two months, whilst the Euro is struggling as it sorts out the issues.

Joe Biden’s US Dollar stimulus package scraped through the house with an extremely narrow margin, potentially opening the way for a US$ 1400 cheque for all individuals as disposable income. The oil price reacted positively to the hope of this stimulus. But whether the senate approve the package is still ‘in the balance’, but US$ strength would follow. Within the Eurozone continued selling of sovereign bonds and subsequent buying by the Central bank to support the Euro is not stopping a gradual slide in its strength. The rise of further Covid variants in this region is also causing concern and undermining Euro strength. In the UK all eyes are on the budget; extent of stimulus package, tax increases and support payments. The current trend is for sterling weakness, but this could change fast.

Currently weakness in the US$ is evident with Sterling and the Euro both holding up against this currency. Sterling is thus holding against the Euro too, which is probably actually masking true weakness in the pound due to the two obvious factors of ‘new variant’ COVID and subsequent lockdown 3 and economic consequences, plus the economic consequences of Brexit. Will this lead to a double dip recession? It has to be likely. This will be true for the EU too we fear. The US is genuinely concerned about the slowness of recovery and the fact that employment levels are unlikely to recover to pre-COVID levels until 2024 at the earliest. They are pushing for further stimulus packages to support the economy.

Currently weakness in the US$ is evident with Sterling and the Euro both holding up against this currency. Sterling is thus holding against the Euro too, which is probably actually masking true weakness in the pound due to the two obvious factors of ‘new variant’ COVID and subsequent lockdown 3 and economic consequences, plus the economic consequences of Brexit. Will this lead to a double dip recession? It has to be likely.

Currency update Currencies are in for a stormy December as uncertainty and change dominates everywhere. In the US, [...]

With US elections next week, escalating Covid cases, and stock markets taking a downward turn in EUI/UK as a consequence currency is remarkably stable. The threat of lockdowns everywhere will impact the effected currency for the region, but who will/won’t lock down, when and for how long remains the uncertain element removing the ability for markets to predict outcomes. The unfinished Brexit business does not help to give markets any clear direction. Otherwise China will miss their trade target with the USA in more or less every category, and of course the Eastern economies are struggling under decreased demand from the West.

A firm sentiment now rests on nearly all markets, after the gradual drift down experienced over the first few months of 2020. Generally, harvests, yields, qualities, supply chain problems, short covering is all coming together to create a firm picture for this season. Combined with a lack of confidence in any particular currency, and global Covid 19 issues, we strongly suggest cover your requirements now. In your domestic currency.

US$ weakness dominates the global FX markets at present, and buyers should take advantage of this opportunity. There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon, and of course the small matter of Brexit 120 days away. Apart from this the various global chancelleries are beginning to consider how to pay for the COVID-19 pandemic, and restructure economies accordingly. It is an unpredictable zone, so whilst times are good in UK/EU zone on currency, don’t miss the opportunity.

The markets are really focused on US news, which currently is all poor. From escalating virus cases, to largest ever quarterly GDP decline, squabbles over the forth coming election, poor leadership, and continuing weak jobless claims. All in all it presents an opportunity for EU/UK buyers of US$ based commodities to snap up some bargains. The €/£ has remained remarkably stable whilst this has all been going on, awaiting some guidance on the Brexit negotiations and what will or will not change on 1st January 2021.

It's surprising to see all currencies unchanged on the month, despite some strength in the pound during June. There is a lot of activity amongst Chancellors and Central Banks to stimulate the various economies out of the COVID scenario, but potentially the impact will be relatively neutral as all will purely look to stimulate their respective economy. Perhaps more concerning is will there be a significant second wave somewhere in the world? The hang over of financial stimulus is also going to be a major concern and how economies deal with this. Will we enter a period of inflation or deflation, as some EU adviser fear?

This month the focus has been on who is providing the largest overall stimulus to their respective economies and how are we all going to pay for it? With a global recession upon us and no one really knows the shape of things to come. Rising unemployment throughout the world will impact on demand. Of course, the other issues are negative interest rates, not seen by many of us before and the impact they have on banks and the financial sector particularly, as well as on us as individuals. Finally, the growing antagonism between China and the USA, and to some extent the rest of the world will have an impact, increasing in intensity as we gradually lift out of this situation into the new world order.

Who knows! The markets will daily interpret the news stories and respond as they see fit as to which region is responding or recovering the best/fastest. All are suffering and government spending is supporting each economy. The recovery will depend on both domestic and international demand.

In the UK it is the end of the financial year, and it has been a month of huge financial stimulus due to COVID-19, and perhaps to some degree it has worked since the FX rates today are not too far off the end of February. The major concern going forward, and it is perhaps too early to be concerned is the impact on the US$ of the huge financial stimulus, plus the anticipated rise in the unemployment rate is going to put their economy under huge pressure.

Who knows what is in store for the global economy as the Covid-19 virus gathers momentum outside China. For sure the expectation is for governmental stimulus to try and stave off a global recession, not seen since 2008. But on top of this we have unrest in the Turkey/Syria region, EU/UK and US/UK trade talks commencing, a near 15% drop in stock markets globally and the oil price dropping below $50/barrel as demand drops in China.

Well, Brexit is done, but both sides are starting the negotiation on the post transition agreement and are taking fairly hard lines as expected. Markets initially favoured Sterling, but this was short lived and are now looking for direction. The Corona virus has impacted oil prices and stock markets. The Chinese government has injected large amounts of cash to stabilise the situation, but obviously this situation will run for some time …

The New Year has injected huge uncertainty into the FX markets, with President Trump’s actions in the Gulf, and any subsequent fall out. In addition the race to complete ideally a ‘Free Trade’ Brexit by 31st December 2020, will put some pressure on Sterling until the mechanism is clear. The pending March budget in the UK will also impact Sterling, as the end to austerity will have an impact on government borrowing etc …

Lots of volatility on markets this period, all caused by sudden realization of crop performance, increased demand, weather and specification challenges, Generally all bad news with tightening supply and firming prices. There are one or two exceptions, but that’s all. Organic supply is becoming tricky too, both from China and elsewhere. In China many suppliers are opting out due to the tough EU regulations imposed unexpectedly last January. We hear of pesticide issues from North America, and supply problem from Eastern Europe. Everything looks like a worsening supply situation and higher prices. But at least the product is likely to be Organic!

Volatility is the name of the game; Brexit, trade wars, US global policing, dropping US$ interest rates, pending EU recession all impact currency, with no clear direction for any. Essentially it is best to convert to local currency and forget these days.

Political uncertainty is clearly evident as a significant impact on currencies at present. The continued attempts to impeach Mr Trump, and the fear of further rate cuts and continued trade wars impact on the US$. Sterling struggles to find direction for obvious reasons, and as we approach month end with no clear resolution, one can only assume the markets will start to move it in one direction. If a deal is struck £/$ 1.30 is likely until then volatility will rule. Whilst in the EU, recession threatens, and poor economic data continues. It is hard to find reason for the Euro to strengthen at this time. Division is clear within the ECB as recent resignations have indicated.

FX has been remarkable stable when looked over the month, mainly due to the holiday period, and surrounding uncertainty that no one can predict the outcome. All the issues remain; Brexit, China-USA trade wars, global recession or not! Sterling has the potential to gain/lose 15 cents to the pound depending on the negotiations. The US$ which could weaken if trade wars develop, is potentially more likely to strengthen if global recession occurs due to the trade issues as investors take haven in the safest currency.

Well, we have a new UK Prime Minister, and Brexit is back on the agenda and at present it is hard to see how we will avoid leaving the EU on 31st October, come what may. Sterling is obviously taking a hit for this reason, and some forecasters are anticipating parity on the US$ and indeed the Euro. This will add 10-20% to all raw material prices, regardless of market savings.

The lowest month for market info. We are just before the earliest new crops, and a long way from last harvest. Additionally, summer holidays are around the corner and on people’s minds. In UK generally planning for a possible eventual Brexit is impossible too, and global uncertainty that impacts on FX rates and thus prices are unpredictable.

Sterling is certainly suffering from Brexit and political uncertainty now, having experienced its worst month for a couple of years. The impact on prices is significant. Otherwise, US trade policy, and escalating trade wars and challenging relationships impacts global currency markets. Additionally, in the US, low inflation and consumer confidence tends to point to the next interest rate move being a cut, perhaps against the preferred direction of the policy makers.

In between seasons now, with the usual market adjustments, stock liquidations, etc. This leads to strong variations in prices, but also in quality of material being supplied, BBE dates etc. Additionally, UK clients are managing their ‘Brexit’ inventory situation, and this is having complications in the market place.