Market reports2019-08-30T12:35:15+01:00

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Market reports archive

Stay ahead of the news with our monthly ingredients market reports, written for you by our in-house expert and director, Frank Horan.

Each month we issue a detailed analysis of the economic climate and news for each of our products’ markets. The latest reports are for registered contacts only; if you would like to access the most up-to-date report please sign up to our mailing list below and each month we will send you a private link to access the content.

Nov02, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: November 2021

Currency update Currencies are moving around against each other currently as discussions regarding interest rates, Covid support programs and inflation continue. There is [...]

Oct04, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: October 2021

Sterling has taken a hit in the last few days dropping 2% the biggest daily fall this year. The economy grew quarter on quarter by 5.5%, but now fuel shortages, energy supplies, future taxes increases, escalating prices and the end of Furlough drag on the pound. The solution perhaps is to increase interest rates, but this will add to the cost of UK Government debt servicing, which would not be good news.

Sep02, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: September 2021

The news from the US of increasing inflation and soaring Covid cases, combined with limited further economic stimulation and low consumer confidence is allowing the US dollar to weaken against other currencies. In Europe inflation is also on the increase with problems in the blocks two major economies. In France inflation is above the blocks target rate and in Germany, factories are operating below pre-Covid levels, with car manufacturing particularly badly hit. Germany also has a political transformation coming with the end of the Merkel era within the month. The new chancellor will have to manage a surge in inflation combined with a drop off of demand and decide if this is simply a delay in demand or business lost.

Aug03, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: August 2021

The steady strengthening of the US dollar came to an end this week and gains were largely reversed as data from the US indicated growth was slower than expected, jobless figures continued higher than expected. The Fed’s decision not to ease their asset purchase scheme also bore on the dollar. The pound is supported by positive Covid news and Brexit news/performance, against the Euro which is currently concerned about the inflation rate for the remainder of 2021.

Jul01, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: July 2021

The supply chain challenges continue to be the major factor influencing things. Freight rates are still climbing, congestion and container supply issues are spreading over to South/Central America now and all supply chains are lengthening. It is a precarious situation, and ultimately increasing costs significantly. We do not expect the situation to improve before 2022. As an indicator, freight from China has increased over 1000% in six months, from $1000/fcl to $ 12000. This adds $ 500/mt for products from this region.

Jun02, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: June 2021

The pound has performed well over the last month mainly riding on the success of the vaccine program and a series of economic data which predicts the UK economy will recover faster and stronger than previously anticipated. Eyes are turning to inflation now, partly as a consequence of the over heated property market, but also due to the increasing cost to all supply chains of freight and other issues. This factor is an impact in EU & USA economies too. Whether the effect in transitory or permanent will impact WHAT, IF Any action, is taken.

Apr30, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: May 2021

The Euro has out performed both Sterling and the US Dollar in the past month, and as vaccine delivery appears to be improving across the region, there is the return of some optimism. In the UK, Sterling has been more stable than the turmoil in the pre-Brexit years. The next weeks elections might introduce some volatility, particularly if the Scottish nationalists perform well and it increases pressure on another referendum for independence. Output figures, strong financial support and an accelerating vaccination program is supporting the US$, but growth prospects are also increasing globally, and in the Eurozone in particular, which cancels out some US Dollar support.

Apr06, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: April 2021

Two major considerations for thew FX markets currently apart from the problematic roll out of vaccinations around the globe. Firstly, increased tensions between Ukraine & Russia, with troop build ups and an escalation of the risk by USA authorities. This has largely gone unnoticed in these current times. Secondly the US has unveiled its economic recovery plan, which is going to focus on economic stimulus for national infrastructure and an ‘onshoring’ of jobs in the manufacturing sectors. Sterling is reacting positively to the planned lifting of restrictions over the coming two months, whilst the Euro is struggling as it sorts out the issues.

Mar03, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: March 2021

Joe Biden’s US Dollar stimulus package scraped through the house with an extremely narrow margin, potentially opening the way for a US$ 1400 cheque for all individuals as disposable income. The oil price reacted positively to the hope of this stimulus. But whether the senate approve the package is still ‘in the balance’, but US$ strength would follow. Within the Eurozone continued selling of sovereign bonds and subsequent buying by the Central bank to support the Euro is not stopping a gradual slide in its strength. The rise of further Covid variants in this region is also causing concern and undermining Euro strength. In the UK all eyes are on the budget; extent of stimulus package, tax increases and support payments. The current trend is for sterling weakness, but this could change fast.

Feb05, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: February 2021

Currently weakness in the US$ is evident with Sterling and the Euro both holding up against this currency. Sterling is thus holding against the Euro too, which is probably actually masking true weakness in the pound due to the two obvious factors of ‘new variant’ COVID and subsequent lockdown 3 and economic consequences, plus the economic consequences of Brexit. Will this lead to a double dip recession? It has to be likely. This will be true for the EU too we fear. The US is genuinely concerned about the slowness of recovery and the fact that employment levels are unlikely to recover to pre-COVID levels until 2024 at the earliest. They are pushing for further stimulus packages to support the economy.

Jan07, 2021

Ingredients Market Report: January 2021

Currently weakness in the US$ is evident with Sterling and the Euro both holding up against this currency. Sterling is thus holding against the Euro too, which is probably actually masking true weakness in the pound due to the two obvious factors of ‘new variant’ COVID and subsequent lockdown 3 and economic consequences, plus the economic consequences of Brexit. Will this lead to a double dip recession? It has to be likely.

Nov01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: November 2020

With US elections next week, escalating Covid cases, and stock markets taking a downward turn in EUI/UK as a consequence currency is remarkably stable. The threat of lockdowns everywhere will impact the effected currency for the region, but who will/won’t lock down, when and for how long remains the uncertain element removing the ability for markets to predict outcomes. The unfinished Brexit business does not help to give markets any clear direction. Otherwise China will miss their trade target with the USA in more or less every category, and of course the Eastern economies are struggling under decreased demand from the West.

Oct01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: October 2020

A firm sentiment now rests on nearly all markets, after the gradual drift down experienced over the first few months of 2020. Generally, harvests, yields, qualities, supply chain problems, short covering is all coming together to create a firm picture for this season. Combined with a lack of confidence in any particular currency, and global Covid 19 issues, we strongly suggest cover your requirements now. In your domestic currency.

Sep02, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: September 2020

US$ weakness dominates the global FX markets at present, and buyers should take advantage of this opportunity. There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon, and of course the small matter of Brexit 120 days away. Apart from this the various global chancelleries are beginning to consider how to pay for the COVID-19 pandemic, and restructure economies accordingly. It is an unpredictable zone, so whilst times are good in UK/EU zone on currency, don’t miss the opportunity.

Aug03, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: August 2020

The markets are really focused on US news, which currently is all poor. From escalating virus cases, to largest ever quarterly GDP decline, squabbles over the forth coming election, poor leadership, and continuing weak jobless claims. All in all it presents an opportunity for EU/UK buyers of US$ based commodities to snap up some bargains. The €/£ has remained remarkably stable whilst this has all been going on, awaiting some guidance on the Brexit negotiations and what will or will not change on 1st January 2021.

Jul01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: July 2020

It's surprising to see all currencies unchanged on the month, despite some strength in the pound during June. There is a lot of activity amongst Chancellors and Central Banks to stimulate the various economies out of the COVID scenario, but potentially the impact will be relatively neutral as all will purely look to stimulate their respective economy. Perhaps more concerning is will there be a significant second wave somewhere in the world? The hang over of financial stimulus is also going to be a major concern and how economies deal with this. Will we enter a period of inflation or deflation, as some EU adviser fear?

Jun01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: June 2020

This month the focus has been on who is providing the largest overall stimulus to their respective economies and how are we all going to pay for it? With a global recession upon us and no one really knows the shape of things to come. Rising unemployment throughout the world will impact on demand. Of course, the other issues are negative interest rates, not seen by many of us before and the impact they have on banks and the financial sector particularly, as well as on us as individuals. Finally, the growing antagonism between China and the USA, and to some extent the rest of the world will have an impact, increasing in intensity as we gradually lift out of this situation into the new world order.

May01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: May 2020

Who knows! The markets will daily interpret the news stories and respond as they see fit as to which region is responding or recovering the best/fastest. All are suffering and government spending is supporting each economy. The recovery will depend on both domestic and international demand.

Apr01, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: April 2020

In the UK it is the end of the financial year, and it has been a month of huge financial stimulus due to COVID-19, and perhaps to some degree it has worked since the FX rates today are not too far off the end of February. The major concern going forward, and it is perhaps too early to be concerned is the impact on the US$ of the huge financial stimulus, plus the anticipated rise in the unemployment rate is going to put their economy under huge pressure.

Mar03, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: March 2020

Who knows what is in store for the global economy as the Covid-19 virus gathers momentum outside China. For sure the expectation is for governmental stimulus to try and stave off a global recession, not seen since 2008. But on top of this we have unrest in the Turkey/Syria region, EU/UK and US/UK trade talks commencing, a near 15% drop in stock markets globally and the oil price dropping below $50/barrel as demand drops in China.

Feb06, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: February 2020

Well, Brexit is done, but both sides are starting the negotiation on the post transition agreement and are taking fairly hard lines as expected. Markets initially favoured Sterling, but this was short lived and are now looking for direction. The Corona virus has impacted oil prices and stock markets. The Chinese government has injected large amounts of cash to stabilise the situation, but obviously this situation will run for some time …

Jan09, 2020

Ingredients Market Report: January 2020

The New Year has injected huge uncertainty into the FX markets, with President Trump’s actions in the Gulf, and any subsequent fall out. In addition the race to complete ideally a ‘Free Trade’ Brexit by 31st December 2020, will put some pressure on Sterling until the mechanism is clear. The pending March budget in the UK will also impact Sterling, as the end to austerity will have an impact on government borrowing etc …

Dec03, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: December 2019

Lots of volatility on markets this period, all caused by sudden realization of crop performance, increased demand, weather and specification challenges, Generally all bad news with tightening supply and firming prices. There are one or two exceptions, but that’s all. Organic supply is becoming tricky too, both from China and elsewhere. In China many suppliers are opting out due to the tough EU regulations imposed unexpectedly last January. We hear of pesticide issues from North America, and supply problem from Eastern Europe. Everything looks like a worsening supply situation and higher prices. But at least the product is likely to be Organic!

Nov01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: November 2019

Volatility is the name of the game; Brexit, trade wars, US global policing, dropping US$ interest rates, pending EU recession all impact currency, with no clear direction for any. Essentially it is best to convert to local currency and forget these days.

Oct01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: October 2019

Political uncertainty is clearly evident as a significant impact on currencies at present. The continued attempts to impeach Mr Trump, and the fear of further rate cuts and continued trade wars impact on the US$. Sterling struggles to find direction for obvious reasons, and as we approach month end with no clear resolution, one can only assume the markets will start to move it in one direction. If a deal is struck £/$ 1.30 is likely until then volatility will rule. Whilst in the EU, recession threatens, and poor economic data continues. It is hard to find reason for the Euro to strengthen at this time. Division is clear within the ECB as recent resignations have indicated.

Sep01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: September 2019

FX has been remarkable stable when looked over the month, mainly due to the holiday period, and surrounding uncertainty that no one can predict the outcome. All the issues remain; Brexit, China-USA trade wars, global recession or not! Sterling has the potential to gain/lose 15 cents to the pound depending on the negotiations. The US$ which could weaken if trade wars develop, is potentially more likely to strengthen if global recession occurs due to the trade issues as investors take haven in the safest currency.

Aug01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: August 2019

Well, we have a new UK Prime Minister, and Brexit is back on the agenda and at present it is hard to see how we will avoid leaving the EU on 31st October, come what may. Sterling is obviously taking a hit for this reason, and some forecasters are anticipating parity on the US$ and indeed the Euro. This will add 10-20% to all raw material prices, regardless of market savings.

Jul01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: July 2019

The lowest month for market info. We are just before the earliest new crops, and a long way from last harvest. Additionally, summer holidays are around the corner and on people’s minds. In UK generally planning for a possible eventual Brexit is impossible too, and global uncertainty that impacts on FX rates and thus prices are unpredictable.

Jun01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: June 2019

Sterling is certainly suffering from Brexit and political uncertainty now, having experienced its worst month for a couple of years. The impact on prices is significant. Otherwise, US trade policy, and escalating trade wars and challenging relationships impacts global currency markets. Additionally, in the US, low inflation and consumer confidence tends to point to the next interest rate move being a cut, perhaps against the preferred direction of the policy makers.

May01, 2019

Ingredients Market Report: May 2019

In between seasons now, with the usual market adjustments, stock liquidations, etc. This leads to strong variations in prices, but also in quality of material being supplied, BBE dates etc. Additionally, UK clients are managing their ‘Brexit’ inventory situation, and this is having complications in the market place.

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