It seems like both inflation and interest rates are likely to have peaked in the USA, EU and UK now with inflation starting to fall. In the UK there is some confidence it will return to the Governments target of halving it within 2023. Markets are looking firmer generally despite new crops being on the horizon. For a variety of reasons from different areas we are off the bottom generally.

Falling inflation rates in both the EU & USA have indicated that perhaps further interest rate rises in the USA maybe slowed, whilst the EU is more likely to add further increases in the coming weeks. Overall, we are seeing the US dollar weakness at present against both Sterling and the Euro. With Sterling particularly strong against both currencies, partly as a response to the latest interest rate increase.

Last minute agreement over the USA debt ceiling prevents turmoil in global markets. Whilst never really expected not to happen it introduces uncertainty into the markets which is never good. Poor UK news on inflation tends to point to at least one further interest rate rise when the Bank of England meets. The Euro is at its weakest since the beginning of 2023, not helped by Germany being officially in recession due to a drop of in global demand.

Major issues surround the US Dollar currently with two over riding concerns. Firstly, are we in another banking crisis or are we not? Secondly will the US increase their debt limit for the 74th time to permit the Government to increase borrowings to pay personnel amongst other issues. One assumes yes to this point. However, together they put the US$ on the back foot and as a consequence we see the € and £ appreciating.

Currency update The Us Dollar has continued to weaken recently as manufacturing data, and financial sector issues impact and potentially impact the Feds likelihood to continue increasing interest rates. Generally, the US dollar benefits from unstable economic outlooks, and 2023 is seen as perhaps less volatile than recent years, so potentially this could [...]

Generally, whilst struggling with strikes and cost of living issues the UK economy has so far avoided recession, and the Government has had good news regarding balance of payments in January. Attention now turns to the March budget and what level of fiscal restraint is required. Sterling is also hoping for a positive outcome to the Northern Ireland protocol which should help build positive relationships within the EU.

Recession is in the air for 2023, with most major economies suffering at some point in the next twelve months, if not already. Certainly the US is looking more likely to fall into recession with weakness in housing, service and manufacturing sectors. This might curtail the Fed’s plan to increase interest rates.

Risk sentiment is improving partly due to the recent apparent easing of US-China relations which is helping non-US currencies. The Fed has supported the dollar by implying further rate increases are on the cards. The Euro had recent encouraging news about industrial output which has given it some support after recent lows against the US$. Easing energy prices also helps the Euro but going forward it is likely to really be at the whim of the US$ and global risk appetite. Sterling whilst also more dependent on US$ strength/weakness will hope to be supported by the Autumn statement out this week.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and FX markets are particularly prone to this. With the global financial crisis, driven by all factors known to us, it is difficult to predict any movement therefore. Certainly, the deepening EU energy crisis as winter approaches. Recessionary fears globally are a major concern obviously, and the continual strengthening of the US$ adds to this.