FX   Monthly movement

US$/£1.59 down from 1.6

US$/€ 1.41 up from 1.37

£/€ 1.1374 down from 1.17

Currency volatility continues to have a major impact on seed prices, and makes it important to consider in light of purchases of products from both € and $ zones since this can be the deciding factor in price competitiveness on the day. The other issue to keep an eye on is the escalating oil price. This will impact on seed prices both through bunker adjustment to marine freight rates and fuel surcharges for local transport.

Pumpkinseed kernels: Prices have weakened significantly at origin recently due to over stocking pressures and the continued lack of demand. This has been further exacerbated by the recent failure of a large Austrian merchant who had a significant long position in pumpkin. We believe the quantity of shine skin AA is diminishing quickly however and would expect prices to stabilize and even increase in this product shortly. For GWS the pressure is less but the decline has slowed too. The rapid decline has led to defaults in China by trader/exporters on the origin factories; this is a new dynamic on this market. It seems a good time to pick a high point on the FX and cover requirements through to new crop.

Sunflower seed kernels:  Argentina has harvested, but prices remain firm and stocks limited. In Eastern Europe prices have eased very slightly for immediate shipment, and from the USA they remain firm/non-existent. China however continues to decline and with favourable exchange rates and without recleaning becomes competitive again. Demand in Europe is poor at present due to high stock holding by importers and consumers. There is still strong demand expected from Turkey for this season which will keep prices more or less stable. In the longer term however, sunflower is surely set to increase as world demand for vegetable oil and alternative crops (ethanol) increase. The growing areas are shifting too and for 2011/12 it is likely that Eastern Europe becomes the major growing area in the world as they increase acreage compared to others who are reducing.

Linseed: We expect prices to remain constant for UK/European material. Canada reduces prices but is out of favour still with most buyers due to the GM issues. We hear of cheap parcels being offered ex East Europe but feel these are more likely to be resellers of Canadian material and are best avoided.

Sesame seed: India seems to have reached a plateau after gradually reducing its price due to lack of the anticipated demand from China for African seed. There is every possibility that prices could increase if this trend reverses however, and then the bounce is likely to be spectacular! In Africa there is still plenty of seed.

Central American Venezuela is harvesting now and expects a crop of 18-23000mt, Paraguay is also harvesting and should receive 30-35000mt. There is no hulling facility in Paraguay as yet. Demand is expected from Japan for Paraguayan quality, but this might be delayed due to the current issues facing this destination. In Venezuela the logistical issues remain, and extracting containers in a timely manner is a huge challenge.

Hulled millet: Both Ukraine and USA have limited/no stocks. We see it as guaranteed that prices will remain firm for this crop, and potentially into next harvest as well. Certainly Ukrainian suppliers have cancelled/re negotiated their contracts.

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We hope this brief update assists and look forward to hearing from you in due course.

Telephone 0044 (0)1372 230020
Fax: 0044 (0)1372 748597.
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